For business leaders planning for 2027, the economic outlook presents a difficult question: Which signals should they trust?

Inflation may be moderating, but borrowing costs remain a concern. Artificial intelligence promises productivity gains, but its effects on employment and growth are still unfolding. Tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and shifting trade relationships are complicating decisions about where companies invest, manufacture, and expand.

These forces do not operate independently. A change in trade policy can affect prices. Higher prices can influence interest rates. Interest rates, in turn, shape investment, hiring, and consumer demand.

The Harry Walker Agency (HWA) represents leading economists, policymakers, and business executives who help organizations understand these connections and make informed decisions in an uncertain economic environment.

Which Economic Indicators Matter Most?

Inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, and consumer spending provide important signals about the economy. But what happens when those indicators point in different directions?

A strong labor market can coexist with weakening consumer confidence. Financial markets can rise even as businesses become more cautious about investment. Understanding these contradictions requires looking beyond individual headlines.

MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz and former CEO of PIMCO, examines how monetary policy, financial markets, and structural economic changes interact, helping leaders distinguish temporary volatility from longer-term shifts.

Former IMF Chief Economist OLIVIER BLANCHARD brings an international perspective on inflation, economic growth, and financial crises, including how economic shocks can spread across markets and borders.

Former Chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers R. GLENN HUBBARD connects macroeconomic policy with corporate decision-making, examining how taxation, investment, and economic conditions influence business growth.

Together, they help leaders understand not just what economic indicators are saying, but which developments deserve their attention.

Where Are Interest Rates and Inflation Headed?

Central banks face a difficult balancing act: keeping inflation under control without unnecessarily weakening employment, investment, and growth.

For businesses, the consequences extend well beyond borrowing costs. Interest rates influence real estate investment, expansion plans, consumer spending, and the cost of financing new technologies.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair and White House National Economic Council Director LAEL BRAINARD offers firsthand insight into how U.S. policymakers navigate these tradeoffs and balance inflation, employment, and financial stability.

Former European Central Bank President JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET, who led the institution through the 2008 financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, brings a global perspective on monetary policy and the challenges of maintaining economic stability.

Their experience helps executives understand how central bank decisions ripple through the broader economy.

How Will Washington's Economic Policies Affect Business?

Tariffs, tax policy, federal spending, and regulation can change the economics of a business decision almost overnight.

A new tariff can alter supply-chain costs. Changes in taxation can influence where companies invest. Federal spending priorities can create opportunities in some industries while reducing demand in others.

Former White House National Economic Council Director and Goldman Sachs President and COO GARY COHN brings experience at the intersection of government policy and global finance, examining how decisions in Washington influence markets and corporate strategy.

Former Treasury Secretary JACK LEW offers insight into fiscal policy, government spending, and economic governance, drawing on senior roles at the Treasury Department, White House, and Office of Management and Budget.

Former Treasury Secretary STEVEN T. MNUCHIN brings a perspective shaped by his leadership during the COVID-19 economic crisis and extensive experience in investment management and financial markets.

Together, they help leaders evaluate how political decisions translate into economic consequences and prepare for changes beyond their control.

What Is Changing in Financial Markets?

Financial markets are being reshaped by technology, regulation, and changing expectations about risk. Artificial intelligence is creating new opportunities, while digital assets and evolving financial technologies are raising questions about transparency, oversight, and market stability.

For businesses, these developments influence how capital is raised, where investors allocate resources, and which financial risks require greater attention.

Former SEC Chair GARY GENSLER examines financial regulation, technological innovation, and the implications of AI for capital markets.

Former CFTC Chairman ROSTIN BEHNAM brings expertise in commodities and derivatives markets, including how energy prices, agricultural markets, and financial volatility affect the broader economy.

Former House Financial Services Committee Chairman PATRICK MCHENRY offers a legislative perspective on financial regulation, capital formation, and innovation in financial services.

STEVE FORBES, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Media, examines how monetary policy, taxation, and market conditions influence investment, entrepreneurship, and economic confidence.

Their perspectives illuminate a central question: What conditions will encourage investment, and what could constrain it?

How Is the Global Economy Changing?

For decades, businesses built global operations around efficiency. Today, geopolitical competition, tariffs, and supply-chain vulnerabilities are forcing companies to reconsider that approach.

Resilience increasingly matters alongside cost. Companies must weigh the benefits of global integration against the risks of relying too heavily on particular markets, suppliers, or trading relationships.

Economist, investor, and corporate board director DAMBISA MOYO examines how geopolitics, global growth, and capital allocation influence corporate strategy, drawing on her experience advising multinational companies.

Nobel Prize-winning economist MICHAEL SPENCE studies the structural forces shaping global growth, including technological change, shifting supply chains, and the evolving relationship between developed and emerging economies.

Their perspectives help executives evaluate where future growth opportunities may emerge and how globalization itself is changing.

What Will Drive the Next Era of Economic Growth?

Artificial intelligence has raised expectations for a new era of productivity. But technological innovation does not automatically produce sustained economic growth.

Companies must adopt new technologies effectively. Workers need the skills to use them. Institutions and markets must create conditions that allow innovations to spread.

JOEL MOKYR, recipient of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, examines why some societies successfully transform technological breakthroughs into sustained prosperity while others struggle. His research offers a historical perspective on the conditions that make innovation economically transformative.

RICHARD THALER, Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of behavioral economics and co-author of Nudge, examines how people make decisions and respond to incentives, challenging assumptions about rational economic behavior.

Their work raises a question for leaders investing in AI and other emerging technologies: How do organizations turn new capabilities into meaningful changes in productivity, behavior, and performance?

How Should Business Leaders Prepare for Economic Uncertainty?

Even the best economic forecasts cannot eliminate uncertainty. Businesses must make decisions before they know how interest rates, trade policy, consumer demand, or technological change will unfold.

That makes adaptability an economic advantage. Companies need strategies that can withstand different outcomes rather than depending on a single forecast.

Former IBM Chairman, President, and CEO GINNI ROMETTY draws on her experience leading a global technology company through significant transformation to explore strategic investment, workforce development, and organizational change.

Banking executive SEKOU KAALUND, whose leadership experience includes U.S. Bank and JPMorgan Chase, offers insight into financial services, economic opportunity, and building sustainable growth.

Their perspectives connect the economic outlook to the decisions leaders must make about investment, talent, and long-term resilience.

Economic Literacy Is Leadership Literacy

Economic uncertainty is not simply a challenge for finance teams. Every major decision about hiring, investment, expansion, or technology depends on assumptions about the economy.

The most effective leaders will not necessarily be those who predict every market movement correctly. They will be those who understand the forces shaping economic conditions, recognize when their assumptions need to change, and adjust their strategies accordingly.

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