HEARING IS BELIEVING: Belief formation and motivated reasoning
Once we form a belief, we have a robust tendency to reason around that belief, applying information that confirms our beliefs and ignoring evidence that disconfirms our beliefs. We will also actively work to discredit evidence that disagrees with us. This is a biased process, with different standards for evaluating evidence that agrees with our beliefs and evidence that disagrees with us. The process forms a vicious circle where we reason to support beliefs we already hold instead of updating and changing our beliefs as we gather new information. Annie Duke explains this robust cognitive error and how it impairs our decision making in business and throughout our personal lives. She traces the origins of this bias in memory and thinking and offers strategies to becoming better and more flexible thinkers.
BIG DATA: The good, the bad, and the ugly
As we become a more data-driven society, we face new questions of how best to use all this new data to improve human decision making. Annie Duke explores the ways in which big data has the potential to overcome robust irrationalities in how we process information and solve for the problem of uncertainty. She also points out the pitfalls and dangers of big data and provides advice about how data is aggregated and collected and where the “human element” still needs to be in control of the analysis in order to interpret and model the data.
EVALUATION OF FEEDBACK: The Rough Road of Learning through Experience
In Annie Duke’s twenty years playing poker, she noticed that most players quickly plateau in their learning despite an abundance of evidence about how they can improve. Players win or lose hands many times an hour and get feedback about the quality of their play almost immediately. Outcomes are closely tied in time to decisions. Poker provides a closed, tight feedback loop so it should provide an ideal environment for years of learning and improvement. Players also have the opportunity to watch others win or lose hands even more often than they play hands themselves. Yet most poker players repeat the same mistakes. Players have trouble incorporating both positive and negative feedback. When things go well, they give maximum credit to their skill. When things don’t go well, they blame luck. Wins, therefore, teach them to do exactly what they are already doing. They ignore losses, attributing them to factors outside their control. Of course, this occurs in every facet of our lives. Annie Duke examines this process with examples from poker, familiar personal and business decisions, and behavioral science research. She shares comprehensive strategies to mitigate these biases, embracing the feedback that our outcomes provide to become better long-term learners. These strategies can be adopted by individuals or at an organizational level.
HOW WINNING AND LOSING DRIVES IRRATIONAL CHOICES: Lessons from the poker table
In poker and throughout our lives, we should try to maximize the time we spend in favorable situations and minimize our time in unfavorable ones. Poker players are too quick to quit when they are winning. They look for any excuse to put the session in the (non-existent) win column. The same players will refuse to quit a losing game. The same thing happens outside poker: sales professionals not giving up on a dead lead; investors unwilling to sell their losing investments. Even something as pedestrian as picking the slowest line at a grocery store and being unwilling to change lines stems from the same bias. Annie Duke examines how the interaction of many cognitive biases (including loss aversion and sunk-cost bias) drives this behavior. These tendencies cause us to miss good opportunities and continue playing when the odds are against us. She provides insight into avoiding this costly decision-making error with strategies that prevent us initially making these poor decisions and how to take a longer term view so we are not as caught up in the emotion of the moment. The strategies apply in the workplace, to parenting and to other personal decisions.
TILT: Managing Your Emotions
Has anyone ever told you, “Why don’t you sleep on it?” or “Take ten deep breaths before you decide?” or even “Calm down.” If so, you (like everyone else) have been on tilt. Tilt is a state of distress that causes us to make emotionally-charged and irrational decisions. In poker, many talented players go broke because they play poker on tilt. Making decisions in this unproductive emotional state is not confined to the poker table. Tilt is common in corporate environments, in finance and sales, and, of course, in our personal lives as anyone with a teenager can attest. The best poker players in the world devote tremendous time and energy on how to reduce the effect of their emotions on their decision-making process. Annie Duke shares the secrets and strategies the top players employ to avoid emotionally- charged decision making.
TAKING CARE OF YOUR FUTURE SELF: Temporal discounting and the sacrifices we make to feel good now
One of the biggest challenges poker players face is how to maintain a long-term view that maximizes their results over their career when they are making moment-to-moment decisions in highly emotionally charged situations. One of the biggest obstacles to success as a player is not talent as most might suspect. It is the ability to balance the future against the present moment, to avoid making decisions that might feel good in the moment but will be costly to your future self. This, of course, is the same problem we all face in making decisions about just about anything: retirement savings, dieting, portfolio management, and procrastination, to name just a few. Annie Duke shows how temporal discounting, discounting the future in favor of feeling good in the present, hurts our overall productivity both in a corporate environment and as individuals. She discusses how this irrational weighting of the present interacts with other cognitive biases to prevent learning, to create emotionally charged decision making, to cost us wealth, and to prevent us from realizing our long-term goals. She offers concrete solutions in the form of both cultural and individual supports for making the kinds of decisions in the moment that more rationally take into account our future selves.
Annie Duke has leveraged her expertise in the science of smart decision making to excel at pursuits as varied as championship poker, public speaking, teaching, philanthropy and parenting.
For two decades, Annie was one of the top poker players in the world, winning several championships during her career. Annie started playing poker at the suggestion of her brother, world champion poker player Howard Lederer. Over the course of a 20-year career, she established herself as one of the top players in the male-dominated game. In 2004, she bested a field of 234 players to win her first WSOP bracelet. The same year, she triumphed in the $2 million winner-take-all, invitation only WSOP Tournament of Champions. In 2010, she won the prestigious NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship, beating poker legend Erik Seidel in the finals.
Prior to choosing poker as a career, Annie Duke was a was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania after graduating with a double major in English and Psychology from Columbia University.
Marrying her academic studies in cognitive psychology with decision making lessons gained through her experience at the poker table, Annie Duke has developed a series of inspirational and educational talks on topics such as decision fitness, emotional control, evaluation of feedback, Prospect Theory, and negotiation tactics. Her deft application of decision science concepts to a wide range of real-world situations spanning both personal and professional topics, coupled with an animated and personable presentation style, have resonated with a diverse range of audiences. She is a regularly sought-after public speaker, addressing thousands in keynote remarks at conferences such as the 2015 Investment Management Consultants Association in Las Vegas and the 2015 EnergySMART Conference in Philadelphia. She has been brought in to speak to the executive teams or sales forces of organizations like Gaylord Resorts, Pandora Radio and Ultimate Software, among many others. She is also a sought-after speaker in the financial sector, with clients such as CitiBank and MacQuarie Group.
Annie regularly shares her observations on decision making and critical thinking skills on her blog and has also shared her poker knowledge through a series of best-selling poker instruction and theory books, including Decide to Play Great Poker and The Middle Zone: Mastering the Most difficult Hands in Hold’em Poker (both co-authored with John Vorhaus).
Annie is also a master storyteller, having performed for The Moth, an organization that preserves the art of spoken word storytelling, appearing three times on The Moth Main Stage. One of her stories was selected by The Moth as one if their top 50 stories and featured in the organization’s first-ever book.
Her passion for making a difference has helped to raise millions for charities with causes as diverse as international refugees, victims of the conflicts in Sudan, improving education, and numerous children’s hospitals. In 2006, she founded Ante Up for Africa along with actor Don Cheadle and Norman Epstein. The organization raised more than $4,000,000 for Africans in need, with a focus on helping victims of the conflicts in Sudan. She also served on the board of The Decision Education Foundation (DEF) from 2007 to 2011. DEF develops decision making curricula for K through 12 students. In 2009, she appeared on NBC’s hit show Celebrity Apprentice, through which she helped raise $730,000 for Refugees International, a charity that advocates for refugees around the world. In October 2013, Annie became a board member for After School All-Stars. In 2014, Annie helped launch How I Decide, a nonprofit with the goal of helping young people develop the essential life skills of critical thinking and decision making.
For more information you can visit Annie's website at www.AnnieDuke.com .