Caroline Atkinson

What will people do when  computers get better than humans at almost everything? Will ordinary jobs disappear, deepening the divide between haves and have-nots? And can leisure be made as meaningful as work?

These troubling questions are underscored by predictions from the best brains in technology about  imminent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Solutions have  been proffered, notably the "Universal Basic Income" or UBI. But maybe predictions of leisure for all are wrong. History suggests that as technology advances, our wants and needs expand. Rather than a jobless world, a more likely challenge is that many  of the jobs left for humans to do will be insecure and underpaid, with automation deepening the divide between haves and have-nots.  UBI is no solution -- it both costs too much for those who pay taxes and gives too little to those in need. Other ideas are out there  -- can they work? What is certain is that  human ingenuity will be needed to invent creative solutions that address the enormous challenge of changing work without the upheavals  that accompanied the last industrial revolution.

On both sides of the aisle -- and both sides of the Atlantic -- concerns about Big Tech  are growing and calls for regulation becoming more insistent. Too often,  the technology companies seem tone deaf in response. Tech  companies and policymakers need to come together to set rules that protect the economy and society without stopping innovation.

America used to be proud (and other  countries envious) of the hugely successful tech companies of Silicon Valley.  But public opinion has changed. A range of concerns have  been raised. Some focus on potential misuse of what may be monopoly power.  Others on the challenge to democracy and national security from on-line interference in elections, terrorist recruiting and even  cyber  warfare. And many  worry that privacy is being eroded in dangerous ways. A reckoning is coming -- these companies are too big and omnipresent to be ignored.  But Silicon Valley's innovation culture has spawned products that delight consumers, make  many  lives easier and even  promise to address such enormous issues as education, disease and climate change. It is critical that regulation be shaped by a clear understanding of what is at stake. But even  now, too many  politicians and policymakers are actually clueless about  big tech,  while the giant companies have  been slow to recognize that they're  at the center of the bull's eye,  and need to respond in new ways. Let’s look at an agenda for change that makes sense.

A slowdown may  be inevitable. The US recovery is almost a decade old. The Fed is tightening -- and so are policy makers in Europe  and China. But pessimists who foresee a repeat  of the financial crisis are most likely wrong -- provided that governments pull back  from trade wars and don’t panic over deficits.

The US economy is still booming, with a much needed recovery in wages now underway as well as rising employment.  But with the Federal Reserve set on path to raise rates and,  just as importantly, rein in the extraordinary liquidity that it provided to combat the Great  Recession, an economic slowdown is in the cards.  Europe is showing signs of economic as well as political strains, notably in Italy, and Brexit hangs over the region.  Even China may be slowing.  These risks can all be managed with careful policy choices. But governments of the major economies are fighting over tariffs and face weakening domestic political support for cooperation.  It would be a punishing political failure, for Republicans or Democrats, to allow an inevitable slowdown to turn into a crisis like 2008.   What needs to be done  to avoid that?

The rules-based system that fostered globalization -- first of trade and then of capital flows -- is under challenge from all sides.  America under President Trump is no longer a cheerleader for international institutions like the WTO,  the World Bank  and the IMF.  Emerging countries -- notably China -- have  seen their economies grow enormously, but not their role in setting the rules or running the global institutions.  Where does this leave international business and finance?