The UK Economic Outlook
The UK’s economy is now about 15 percent smaller than one would expect based on the long-term trend. Economic performance since the financial crisis has roughly matched the Eurozone even though the UK is outside the Euro. Why? And what is preventing recovery?
Where is Russia Headed?
The track record of major oil-exporting states over the past 30 years is spectacularly divided: on the one side, Norway, one of the world’s richest nations; on the other side, every other country (Ecuador, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria), experiencing nil or negative income growth over three decades. On which side of the divide does Russia’s future lie?
Reasons for Optimism in the Eurozone
It appears that the Eurozone is stalled, both politically and economically, with leaders unable to agree a way forward. This is untrue: actually, what is happening is realignment, which is economically painful but necessary to secure the Euro’s future.
Political Risks in China
Is China about to crash? No. The government’s fiscal position is strong enough to cope with shocks. But China’s growth will slow, as the country “moves up the value chain”. More US/EU industries will feel competitive pressure; but the pace won’t be as fast as during the low-end manufacturing surge.
The Global Economic Outlook
This talk focuses on the unexpected upsides of the Eurozone crisis, risks associated with "tape terror," the outlook for Iran, and China's near and long-term prospects.
Sam Wilkin offers economic and political insight with “humor, drama and an eye for ironic details”, in the words of Belgium’s Trends magazine. Backed by the unmatched resources of Oxford Economics (which produces forecasts for more than 190 countries, 100 industries and 2,600 cities globally), and Oxford Analytica (which provides geopolitical analysis every business day), Sam delivers not stump speeches but clear explanations of political and economic trends and risks tailored to the interests and concerns of the attendees of your event.
Sam is Senior Advisor, Business Research at Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost global forecasting and research consultancies. Founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University’s Templeton College, Oxford Economics now has more than 70 economists on staff. He is also Senior Advisor, Political Risk, at Oxford Analytica. Founded in 1975, Oxford Analytica draws on a global expert network to provide geopolitical and strategic analysis to a roster of clients that includes majority global corporations and more than 50 world governments.
Sam is a frequent speaker on current affairs, the economic outlook, emerging markets, and geopolitics. He advises corporations and governments on global political and economic issues ranging from the rise of the BRICs to the stability of the Eurozone.
Sam is coauthor, with Marvin Zonis, Dan Lefkovitz, and Joseph Yackley of Risk Rules: How Local Politics Threatens the Global Economy (Agate, 2011). The Harvard Business Review called the book “powerful” and Mark Mobius of Templeton Asset Management said “the authors exhibit a strong knowledge of what goes on behind the scenes in emerging markets”. Risk Rules was originally published as The Kimchi Matters in 2003 and was updated and republished in 2011 after selling out its original print run.
Sam’s articles and op-eds cover topics ranging from reform of financial regulation (for the Harvard Business Review) to Microsoft’s international strategy (for Barron’s) to Turkey’s EU accession prospects (for the Boston Globe). His article “Can Bad Governance be Good for Development?” appears in the February/March 2011 edition of Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Sam is also the editor of Country and Political Risk: Practical Insights for Global Finance (Risk Books, 2004).
Sam previously served as head of business research at Oxford Economics, as associate director of the consultancy practice at Oxford Analytica, as head of political risk consulting for Aon Trade Credit and as director of country analysis for Marvin Zonis & Associates. He received his M.A. in international relations from the University of Chicago and B.A. in economics from Eckerd College, and was the 2004 alumni fellow for Eckerd College.
Sam is currently at work on a book on the world’s most profitable business ventures, forthcoming in 2015 from Little, Brown in the US and Sceptre in the UK.
He is also producing the second edition of the edited volume Country and Political Risk, due to be published in 2015.